Maintenance CapEx gets ignored despite being lower risk, non-discretionary, and far less competitive.
GIH projects roughly $97 trillion in infrastructure investment need by 2040, with on the order of $18 trillion still unfunded on current trends. In the United States, ASCE estimates a $3.7 trillion gap for 2024–2033 under current funding — rising to about $4.4 trillion if public investment falls back to pre-2021 levels. Operations & maintenance's share of spend has been rising for decades; the shift from building new to keeping existing assets alive has already happened.
Yet venture capital remains obsessed with growth CapEx. Maintenance CapEx is lower risk, non-discretionary, and far less competitive. In GCC and SEA infrastructure maintenance spending grows 6–8% annually versus 2–3% in developed markets, with far fewer well-capitalized incumbents.
Physical systems break down. Unlike speculative projects, you cannot defer maintenance forever — it compounds at ~7% annually. Deferred spending turns into emergency spending. Bridge inspections, lead-pipe replacement, PFAS treatment, pipeline safety — compliance budgets are visible, multi-year and unavoidable.